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Analysis of the current status of the manufacturing industry and outlook for 2024
According to a report from ECIA, the current manufacturing environment remains stagnant, although there are some positive signs. According to a report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remained at 47.2 in September, continuing to contract for six months. Although the month-on-month data for new orders and output increased slightly, they still failed to break the downward trend, reaching 46.1 and 49.8 respectively. Meanwhile, employment and price indicators also showed signs of contraction, pointing to weak demand.
Tim Fiore, head of the ISM Manufacturing Survey Committee, mentioned that due to the uncertainty caused by federal monetary policy and the upcoming election, companies are cautious about capital investment and investment in inventory, affecting overall demand.
According to analysis by Edgewater Research, Standard & Poor's (S&P)'s expectations for the manufacturing industry are relatively conservative, with PMI falling to 47.3 from 47.9 in August, showing a significant decline in orders, output and employment since June 2023. The fastest.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2024
Regarding the fourth quarter of 2024, ECIA’s latest report pointed out that the market outlook is still bleak and the recovery timetable has been delayed. Many analysts expect signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, but some believe recovery may have to wait until the second half of 2025. As inventories continue to be digested in the supply chain, the recovery process is expected to be slower throughout the year.
In specific industry analysis, September data showed that semiconductors and passive components performed poorly, with the index in both categories falling by nearly 12 points. The index for passive components fell to 93, while semiconductors remained around 100.
Among the relatively strong sectors, Electromagnetic Components remains a solid performer, with its score still above 103, although its score dropped 5 points. ECIA expects that in October, while it is expected to see improvements in the passive component category, only inductors are likely to reach the 100 standard.
The score of the overall electronic components end market increased slightly from 100 to 101.6 in September, and expectations for October are even more optimistic, with market estimates that its score may reach 112.7. The index in the industrial sector also improved significantly, rising to 115 points, and performed particularly well in a few sectors above 100.
Although many market segments will perform well in October, the mobile phone market index failed to exceed expectations of 100. Other market segments are likely to score more than 100, while the growth rate of the mobile phone market is expected to be around 20 points.
In terms of delivery time, after several months of stability, there were some fluctuations in September. Some reports showed that delivery time in the semiconductor and electromagnetic/connector fields has increased, while the delivery time of passive components has been decreasing.
To sum up, although the manufacturing industry currently faces many challenges, through continued observation of economic trends and the formulation of reasonable expectations, companies can still find potential opportunities in the future. Manufacturers and investors should stay sharp and adapt to market changes to meet future challenges.